Too much hope?

Yesterday was a great day to be an American. The forty-third successful and peaceful transition of power is not something to take lightly. Unfortunately, President Obama takes the reins at a very turbulent time. While his messages of hope and a brighter future for America are inspiring, will President Obama be able to deliver results? I have stated to friends, Republican and Democrat alike, that I'm going to give him a two year grace period. It's unrealistic to expect magic immediately. I feel as if others aren't giving him the same courtesy. There are a lot of Americans with very high expectations for the President. We'll see if he can clear the bar. 

Like me, Politico contributors Jim VandeHei and John Harris are skeptical. With our national debt spinning out of control, can President Obama and Congress spend us out of trouble? What about inflation and our credit rating? Will genius fail? Do good things come from legislation with bipartisan support? Will we be able to navigate a storm previously unseen? At this time, no one can be completely confident in their answers.

Less than four years from now, Republican candidates for all offices will surely echo Ronald Reagan and ask the American people, "Are you better off now than you were four years ago?" What will be the answer to that question, the most important one of all?

Inauguration

Happy Inauguration Day everyone! It's an exciting day to be an American, even if you're a traditional conservative (see Ron Paul) like me. Regardless on your thoughts on the election, you do have to marvel at the seamless transition of power on Inauguration Day. I know Europe wasn't very supportive of McCain during the campaign, but while in London I have talked to people from all around the world and they keep coming back to one thing: McCain's graciousness in defeat. Eastern Europeans are especially floored by how McCain has accepted defeat and resumed his service in the Senate. It may be old hat for us, but on days like today you have to reflect on what makes the United States a destination for the jilted, destitute masses all around the world. As we read about election tampering in Zimbabwe, Russia, and other nations around the world, we must remind ourselves that a lot of people don't have it as good as we do. No matter how bad things have gotten, just remember that people don't risk their lives to travel by raft to Cuba. 

That being said, check out this article from ESPN's Tom Farrey that urges Obama to get kids active again. While a lot of attention is already and will continue to be paid to Obama's stimulus package and his actions in directing our troops abroad, I think this cause has some merit. Children are less active today than ever before. Obesity levels have skyrocketed. I think Farrey makes a good point in that President Obama could make pick-up games cool again. While organized teams have thrived over the past two decades because of helicopter parents looking to schedule every minute of their child's day, overall participation in sports is down because kids don't take it upon themselves to meet at the sandlot, field, rink, court, pitch or playground to just play. 

Ferry writes, "The economic consequences of Americans' physical inactivity are huge, costing more than $76 billion a year in direct medical costs alone, according to one academic study." Nothing a few pick-up hoops games at the White House couldn't fix. 

Kim Jong Il is gonna blow up the world...

Big news, folks! In a news conference in Beijing yesterday, Selig Harrison, a US scholar with access to senior North Korean officials, announced that in recent meetings with said officials, they claimed to have "weaponized" their stockpile of plutonium.

Now, before I get to my analysis, check out this video with my favorite impersonator Frank Caliendo. He is hilarious and spot on with his impressions, but pay close attention to the Charles Barkley bit (5:56). It gives North Korea's ailing leader a shout out. Enjoy!

Hopefully that got some laughs! Now, let's all take a deep breath. For the more paranoid neo-conservative crew, a paper bag might be necessary to ease the anxiety. I really don't see any reason to overreact to this news. First of all, North Korea only has enough plutonium for four or five warheads. While one nuclear strike on the US would be catastrophic, much less five, North Korea would never push the button. The North Koreans may be a bit crazy, but they're not stupid. It would be an instant death wish. The entire eastern hemisphere would be under a mushroom cloud compliments of Uncle Sam, to say nothing of what would happen to North Korea. Secondly, at the peak of the Cold War, the Soviet Union had over 30,000 nuclear weapons and we're all alive today to talk about it. Thirdly, and most importantly, don't you think it's a bit hypocritical for the US to criticize other nations for building a few nuclear weapons when we have the largest nuclear arsenal by far? The state of North Dakota houses more nuclear weapons than any foreign nation!

If the US were asked why we have built up such a large nuclear arsenal, our government would surely respond that it is for our protection. If so, why should it be different for other nations? North Korea has a right to prepare for its defense, like it or not. With the way President Bush has thrown our military into countless conflicts around the world, the North Koreans are probably worried that they're next.

We didn't solve our problems with the Soviet Union in the 1980s by nuking Moscow, just as we shouldn't take any military action against North Korea today. This should, however, serve as a wake-up call telling us that the current course isn't working. We need to stop our unconstitutional, unsuccessful, and pointless wars around the world and embrace friendship, commerce, and diplomacy with all nations. Wars and threats aren't working.

$100 Trillion! Oh, wait...

Check out the link below which provides the latest on the economic disaster occurring in Zimbabwe. Enjoy!

"Zimbabwe to Print $100 Trillion Note"

The Zimbabwean government has just announced that they will begin printing 100 trillion dollar notes in order to keep up with hyperinflation, an epidemic that has brought the once prosperous nation to its knees. For all of you that are dazzled by large numbers, don't be. With a loaf of bread currently selling for 300 billion Zimbabwe dollars (and increasing everyday), this note will eventually become useless as well. Combine that with an announced inflation rate of 231 million percent (as of July 2008), one has to figure the debut of the $100 Quadrillion note isn't far off. Even more likely though is the phasing out of the Zimbabwe dollar. Doctors and nurses have been on strike since September after demanding to be paid in US dollars. Said strike carries an enormous price - no pun intended - as a cholera outbreak has already claimed 2,000 lives. Teachers have now walked out as well, leaving exams ungraded. Vendors already greatly prefer to be paid in foreign currencies, and it is only a matter of time before they refuse to exchange their goods for Zimbabwe dollars altogether. 

I'm posting this article partly to introduce some levity this weekend, but also to forewarn my American comrades of the inflationary period that is sure to come as our economy starts to "recover." While we will never see inflation soar to levels anywhere near 231 million percent annually, I fear that the US will be smacked with double-digit inflation by 2010. Creating credit and currency out of thin air to bail out every Tom, Dick and Harry willy surely have its consequences. As if the TARP fund wasn't enough, the incoming Obama administration, with the backing of the US Congress, just rolled our plans for a $750 Billion stimulus package. Now this wouldn't be so bad if we were talking Zimbabwe dollars, but unfortunate this is 750 billion US greenbacks. If you think it will stay at $750 Billion, you're crazy. It will reach $900 Billion easy, maybe even $1 Trillion. Keep in mind that is is on top of a budget deficit that already tops $1 Trillion and a national debt that has reached fourteen figures, as in $10 Trillion. Every time bailouts and spending programs are introduced, it just means more money is borrowed from China, India, Japan, and many other nations around the world, friends and foes alike. 

Don't say you haven't been warned. You'll know things are bad when bread is in the billions. Just ask Mugabe. 

Undue Praise

Now I'm not a regular viewer of "The View," but a segment from this Monday's episode grabbed my attention. The segment posted below shows the ladies' conversation with far-right critic and best-selling author Ann Coulter, whose new book Guilty is now in bookstores. See below:

Before I continue, I'd like to wonder aloud how these women are allowed to talk about real issues. I don't watch "The View," only certain clips on YouTube, but every time I see a clip, I am aghast at the lack of intelligence sitting around the table. Half of Joy Behar's statements are grossly incorrect. Elizabeth Hasselbeck is pretty, but also pretty dumb, and Whoopi and Sherri Shepherd are the most lilly-livered apologists going. The only person I have an ounce of respect for is Barbara Walters, but don't push it Barbara. 

That said, let me also say that I am not usually a supporter of Ann Coulter, as I feel that she represents the neo-conservative takeover of the Republican Party, a movement that I despise, but I have to give her credit where credit is due. Coulter is spot-on when it comes to single mothers and their portrayal in American society. Isn't it bizarre that we portray these women as heroes? Coulter is just citing facts: 80% of prison inmates are products of single mothers, 70% of juvenile delinquents are products of single mothers. Coulter even goes on to point out that when single motherhood is taken out of the equation, black and white crime rates are the same! Yet somehow, the most irresponsible members of society are exalted.

The response? Sherri Shepherd says Coulter isn't "compassionate enough." Whoopi Goldberg says that Coulter doesn't have kids and isn't married, so she wouldn't understand. Whoopi is right, the facts Coulter cited would change if Coulter was married, had the picket fence and 2.5 kids (please imagine sarcasm dripping off of your monitor). Ridiculous. Now, I'm not trying to attack all single mothers. There are undoubtedly millions of single mothers who don't have juvenile delinquents for children. All I'm saying is that the numbers don't lie. If we want to fix some of our problems in the United States, we're going to have to stop being apologists for every race, culture and religion and address our issues head on, no matter how politically incorrect they may be.

While Ann and I don't often agree, she is correct on this one and does have "thirty or forty years of social science evidence" to back up her claims. What do you think. It surely is a hot button issue. Hopefully I get some passionate comments. 

Déjà vu?

OK, so here it is, my first post! Now that I've officially started, I promise to do my best to post interesting articles with my comments on a daily basis. It's a New Years resolution, sixteen days late. Hold me to it, check out the link below, and let's get started!

"The Futility of the Government Airline Bailout"

             - Paul A. Cleveland and Michael D. Tucker

US Airways Flight 1549, originally scheduled to arrive in Charlotte from New York LaGuardia on Thursday, has gotten me thinking over the past forty-eight hours. Much has been said and written about the heroics of Chesley B. "Sully" Sullenberger III, the flight's captain who artfully guided the plane to a successful emergency landing in the Hudson River. While I was happy to hear that all 155 passengers and crew-members survived the crash, my mind started to wander elsewhere. As stated before, Flight 1549 came to its demise in the Hudson River, only a stone's throw from the Ground Zero. While most Americans have returned to their normal routine and put 9/11 in the rear-view mirrors, it seems that there is one item that connects us to that time just over seven years ago. 

The bailout. A little more than two weeks after the attacks, Congress passed the Air Transportation Safety and System Stability Act, a $15 Billion aid package to help the airline industry in the wake of 9/11. $5 Billion was paid out immediately, with $10 Billion set aside to guarantee loans. Unfortunately, the Air Transportation Stabilization Board (ATSB) was given such loose regulations that they were able to extend loan guarantees for just about any request that came across their desk. As a result, the federal government poured billions of dollars into inefficient "hub and spoke" airlines, many of whom would ultimately fail within two years of receiving government aid. The playbook was the same as it is today with the banks and auto makers. The government agreed to provide emergency funding in return for a few concessions by the airlines, centering on executive pay. Does this sound familiar? It should. 

All told, US Airways, whose Airbus A320 was just dragged from the murky Hudson, received an $800 Million initial cash infusion and $900 Million in loan guarantees. It's important to note that before they received government funding, US Airways executives tried to get financing from the private sector, but were summarily turned away by no less than twenty-five banks after their credit was downgraded to "junk" status by the major credit-rating agencies. Does this mean that the US Treasury Department is a better judge of credit than the private sector? Of course not! It just means that US Airways' credit worthiness was irrelevant, because what the hell, if they defaulted, the taxpayer would cover it. Does this sound familiar? It should.

US Airways filed for bankruptcy just eighteen months after receiving said funding, a fate shared with many in the industry. They eventually merged with America West, but kept the US Airways brand name. The main point is that US Airways didn't make the drastic changes necessary to compete with JetBlue, Southwest Airlines and the new, smaller, and more efficient competition that was and still is gaining market share from the dinosaurs (US Airways, American, Delta). Not making the significant changes necessary to compete in a forever altered marketplace...does this sound familiar? It should. 

All told, the taxpayer has been skinned and gutted again. In laying out $700 Billion for the TARP fund to rescue the banks, auto makers, and insurance companies, Americans have been saddled with an obligation that 90% of eligible voters didn't want. Oh and, of the $350 Billion that's already been spent, we can't account for most of it! Henry Paulson is doing for Timothy Geithner what Bush did for Obama, screwing up so badly that his successor can't help but be viewed in a good light in comparison. It's time for the bailouts to end. No one is too big to fail. While this philosophy might've caused the recession to deepen in the short-term, our short-term pain would lead to long-term stability. Now, with the Fed and the US Treasury Department intervening at every turn, we are only setting ourselves up for an even bigger meltdown. Trillions of dollars have been created out of thin air. Can you imagine what it's going to be like when inflation hits? The US dollar will be worth almost as much as its Zimbabwean counterpart. Find your wheelbarrow...you're going to need it to haul your money to the market.

By the way, been to an airport lately? Some return we've gotten on our investment...